Favorites How much in this word is given in pain in the hearts of thousands and thousands of beginner players on bets. Moreover, the term “beginners” can be applied not only to those who are just starting their way in betting, but also to those many who have not made an iota in their development, although they have been making bets in time for quite some time. The fact is that with betting on favorites, such phenomena are in close contact. These are the categories of players who put, as it seems to them, on the most faithful ones, on favorites who will definitely win and cannot be otherwise. At the same time, the term itself stems from the word “get into” money, because this is exactly what happens with this category of players. What is the catch with betting on favorites? Is it so easy to make money betting on favorites? We will understand the nuances, dig deeper than the average people usually look. If you recognize yourself by the description of the style of betting, then this publication will be especially useful for you. We will tell you what the problem is, and how to break the vicious circle of minus bets on favorites, teach how to distinguish between “right” favorites, on which you can and should be placed, from “wrong”, on which you don’t have to carry your money. Let’s get started.
To approach the problem, first we look at its manifestations. Consider the game of a typical loose football player. We can take any other sport, the main phenomena there are exactly the same. But for clarity, we take the most popular sport, which is the vast majority of bets in our region.
The player, or rather begins to choose what to put on. They are simultaneously driven by two stimuli: “greed” and “fear”. Well, somewhere nearby he was driven by a “rush.” After all, money is needed the faster, the better. And sports betting is a topic that is fanned by a fleur of quick money like no other. On the one hand, greed requires earning as much as possible. On the other hand, fear says that you need to choose the most confident event and put there so as not to lose your hard-earned money, and win without fail.
Analysis of the line that the bookmaker offers for the upcoming matches leads such a player to the conclusion that it is most reliable to choose the strongest team when it plays with a weak one. And put the entire amount available, or a large percentage of it, on this “clear favorite”. And let the coefficient be small, but the result is “guaranteed”. The calculation goes on what will be done, for example, ten such bets on “reinforced concrete” and the total winnings little by little, turn into a doubling of the bank, a solid jackpot.
And it happens that quite large amounts of money, tens and hundreds, and sometimes millions, are put on odds in the region of 1.10-1.20 or a little more.
Practice shows that absolutely any bet can lose and a low coefficient is not a guarantee of its passage 100%. Sooner rather than later, loses by a seemingly most accurate bet, “favorite” fails. Given the more than modest odds that use, it takes a very long time to win back a large amount. For example, a player bet 100,000 rubles. for the victory of a favorite with the “kef” 1.10. And the bet is lost. This means that you need to find another 100,000 rubles. bet them 10 times on the same odds and win all 10 out of 10 attempts. And only in this way you can return the lost 100K. It is clear that 2 such drains will require 20 wins out of 20 already, in order to compensate for everything. Usually such a bettor fails faster than it earns.
What are the errors of this approach? Firstly, the coefficient is too low. Secondly, the analysis is weak. Well, if at all. Most picks the favorites simply by the line of the bookmaker. Just, the event for which a low “kef” is given is perceived as “reinforced concrete”.
So, we saw the symptoms. Now we will understand the reasons. And for this you need to deal with the mathematics of the bookmaker when forming the line, setting quotes.
We touched upon the topics of formation of coefficients in many articles and even dedicated individual publications to this most important topic of betting. But here we briefly state the basic things.
The odds in the line of the bookmaker, contrary to popular belief, reflects not only the probability of the outcome. Quotations are more correctly perceived as a speculative indicator, like on an exchange or market with freely floating prices. And these “prices” are formed under the influence of several factors. And the probability of the onset of one or another outcome is only one of them.
The first factor in the formation of the coefficient is still the probability. The analytical department of the bookmaker conducts an analysis of the factors based on which a forecast is given, a comparison of probabilities is made. So the basic coefficients are formed. And from them, logic already extends to secondary markets in painting.
The second factor is the margin, the commission that the bookmaker imposes on each coefficient. This is one of the components of his earnings. We emphasize that one of the components, and not the only one. Later we will understand what we are talking about.
For example, an attentive player would notice that the equivalent event in the betting line is estimated by coefficients not 2.00 to 2.00, but less: 1.90 to 1.90, or 1.95 to 1.95. Speaking in the language of probability and numbers, then the probabilities of 50% to 50%, just, should be written as 2.00 to 2.00.
100% / 2.00 = 50%
Since in reality, we see, for example, 1.90, then this is a consequence of charging a margin. 1.90 to 1.90 indicates that the margin is 5.26%. Quite a bit of. There are bookmakers even more greedy. But there are also larger offices, which are limited to 2.5%. Naturally, putting in the latter is more profitable.
There is no way to get away from the margin. She is different in different offices. But its presence in the formation of the coefficients must be remembered.
The third factor is speculative. The bookmakers themselves and the media controlled by them will not tell you about this for sure. We ask ourselves a question. When considering the behavior of the “pops”, we noted that they “analyze” and choose matches for bets on the line of the office. And this, for a minute, at least 2/3 of all players. Perhaps an even more substantial part. Can a bookmaker avoid the temptation to arbitrarily move odds in some matches, if in this way you can manipulate the opinion of the crowd, direct financial flows in a profitable direction? Here we recall the classics. There is no crime that capital will not commit for the sake of a 200% profit. Well, you get the point. Since we are dealing with capitalists who operate with such a profitable business as rates, manipulation is inevitable. Experienced players could notice such distortions more than once. And even use them when playing against the crowd. But this is a separate big topic. Nevertheless, the factor of manipulation must be kept in mind, especially when considering the most striking signs, games in leading championships and tournaments with maximum coverage, in a kind of Champions League. Speculation and superprofits due to the “haircut” of the brainless crowd – this is the second source of income for bookmakers, on a par with margin.
The fourth factor is “loading”. If the first three factors can affect the ratio of coefficients all the time the line is “life”, from the moment of publication of its first version to the close, then “load” is formed in the process by the betting community itself.
The ideal situation for the bookmaker is to accept the opposite outcomes of the same outcome, such amounts of money that will be inversely proportional to the odds. For example, “total is greater than 2.5” – 1.75, “total is less than 2.5” – 2.15. Ideal for the office to accept 21.5 million on TB and 17.5 million on TM. In general, in this ratio. Then, with any outcome, the profit on margin will be the same. If it is not possible to equalize the amounts, and in real matches, this most often happens, then you have to shift the coefficients themselves. Where more money goes, the same “load” is formed there and the coefficient decreases. This is done for two purposes. Firstly, to those who bet on this outcome pay less money if this particular rate passes. Secondly, to discourage part of the players from betting here. On the other hand, increasing the coefficient on the opposite shoulder creates the illusion of profitability to bet on a less popular outcome. This slightly equalizes the funds on the opposite shoulders, which is what the bookmaker needs.
Now let’s look at the situation with the bets on clear favorites. The office already knows in advance that the lion’s share of stavers will carry their money for this team. There is no need to manipulate anything, artificially appoint a favorite. The volume of the name of the team, the club will be enough. Since the vector of the flow of fixed assets is known in advance, then naturally there is an artificial manipulative understatement of the coefficient on the shoulder of such a favorite. For example, the estimated likelihood of a simple win of a favorite is about 80%. Given the margin, it would be worth giving a ratio of about 1.20. But the office will immediately deliver 1.17. And over time, when the “hit” bring a bunch of millions to this outcome, the quote will go to 1.16, 1.12, and maybe even to 1.10.
And so, “Popan” has been making 100 bets on similar matches for some time, where the coefficient has been reduced from the manipulations of the bookmaker and “loading”. Based on the real probability, out of 100 plus bets, there will only be about 80. Of course, this distance is not that the distribution is accurate, but in the average case the trend is in this direction. So let’s estimate 100 bets of 100,000 rubles each, by a factor of 1.10. Of these, 80 will win.
100,000 * 1.10 * 80 = 8,800,000
A total of 10 million was played. Minus 1.2 million. And this is purely in mathematics, in the averaged version. In fact, minus can be even cooler. So the reasons why the “hit” hit we found out.